PSD and PS in the polls

Three new polls since the last time we looked at this: from Marktest, Aximage, and Eurosondagem.

The advantage of the PSD over the PS is now estimated at 7.5 points by Aximage (down from 8.2 in January), at 12.4 points by Marktest (down from 25.7 in November) and at 5 points by Eurosondagem (down from 6.1 in January).

Yet another piece of the Greek puzzle

Latest polls in Greece:

Epikaira (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 30.5% (-3)
PASOK: 12% (-32.1)
Laos: 6% (+0.4)
Democratic Left: 13% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12.5% (+7.9)

Skai/Ekathimerini (comparison with last election result):

New Democracy: 31% (-2.5)
PASOK: 8% (-35.9)
Laos: 5% (-0.6)
Democratic Left: 18% (new party)
KKE: 12.5% (+5)
Coalition of the radical left: 12%  (+7.4)
Chrysi Avgi: 3% (+2.5)

12% for PASOK would be the worst result for the Socialists ever, even worse than the 13.6% of the 1974 elections, the first after the end of the military junta. In these polls, the parties to the left of PASOK represent about 40% of the vote. And Chrysi Avgi is, well, this.

PSD and PS in the Portuguese polls

So few polls have been conducted in the more than 6 months since the general election in Portugal that one has to feel discomfort in analyzing them. And yet, two things seem relatively clear: in spite of dramatic austerity policies, PSD retains lead; and in spite of retaining lead, such lead is clearly diminishing. I guess you can take this and spin it as you prefer.

Data taken from here.

Experiência

Daqui a minutos deve estar a começar a minha apresentação na conferência sobre os resultados do Barómetro da Qualidade da Democracia, no ICS. Especulo, porque não estou lá, mas sim em Washington. Mas vou apresentar na mesma, assim:

Quem não puder lá estar e tiver interesse, aproveite. O som da minha voz é-me quase intolerável e foi das coisas que mais me custou fazer na vida. Mas por outro lado, se correr bem, é bem possível que nunca mais compareça fisicamente a uma conferência.

Gustav Leonhardt, 1928-2012

O primeiro CD que comprei na minha vida foi este, talvez 1984. Calhou ter entrado no Bach com a ajuda dele, e não calhou nada mal. A partir daí nunca mais os larguei, um e outro. Se houver paraíso estão a conversar sobre fugas ou afinações.

Conferences

In January 19th, the Barometer of the Quality of Democracy in Portugal holds its third conference, presenting a series of papers on the subject, partially based on a survey conducted last July.

And by the way, later in the year (April 17th-18th), the Department of Government of Georgetown University and the BMW Center for German & European Studies are organizing a conference on "Crisis, Voting, and Protesting in Europe", with a special focus on Spain, Portugal, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, and Italy, part of a series of conferences and events entitled The Political Consequences of Economic Crisis.

It is now painfully clear that a big part of the music I was ever going to instinctively enjoy for the rest of my life was defined sometime around 1984

Well, maybe 1983.