PSD: 36.3% (-0.6)
PS: 29.6% (+0.4)
CDS-PP: 12.1% (-0.4)
CDU: 9.0% (+0.2)
BE: 6.1% (-0.2)
Here. Changes in evaluations of party leaders and institutions are equally small. Interestingly, leaders are mostly evaluated positively, while institutions are evaluated negatively (in the piece, there's a typo in the parliament's net evaluation result).
sexta-feira, novembro 18, 2011
segunda-feira, novembro 14, 2011
Spain: the last polls
The Spanish election is less than a week away. In the last few days, several polls coming out from several different sources. Here's the updated graph, for the three major parties, since Rubalcaba became PSOE's candidate (smoother 25% bandwidth):
The smoother seems to capture a slight decline for PP and a rise for IU, but that could be a function of the particular mix of companies that have done polls recently and the kind of "house effects" attached to their polls. A better way to ascertain this is to regress scores on dummies for companies (leaving CIS as the reference category) and dummies for time periods (months, in this case, considering the small number of polls). The results suggest that:
1. After their peak in April, PSOE lost about 3 points until today and has remained mostly stable since September.
2. Estimates clean of house effects for PP show a very small decline from October to November (.6%) but that only leaves them at the point they already were in September. Effect of the debate? An hypothesis, but impossible to say just on the basis of these data, really.
3. IU is the only party experiencing significant changes recently, up more than 1 p.p. since September.
Starting tomorrow, publication of polls in the media is not allowed in Spain.
P.S.- For estimates resulting from a Bayesian state-space model for pooling poll data first developed by Simon Jackman, see here.
The smoother seems to capture a slight decline for PP and a rise for IU, but that could be a function of the particular mix of companies that have done polls recently and the kind of "house effects" attached to their polls. A better way to ascertain this is to regress scores on dummies for companies (leaving CIS as the reference category) and dummies for time periods (months, in this case, considering the small number of polls). The results suggest that:
1. After their peak in April, PSOE lost about 3 points until today and has remained mostly stable since September.
2. Estimates clean of house effects for PP show a very small decline from October to November (.6%) but that only leaves them at the point they already were in September. Effect of the debate? An hypothesis, but impossible to say just on the basis of these data, really.
3. IU is the only party experiencing significant changes recently, up more than 1 p.p. since September.
Starting tomorrow, publication of polls in the media is not allowed in Spain.
P.S.- For estimates resulting from a Bayesian state-space model for pooling poll data first developed by Simon Jackman, see here.
terça-feira, novembro 08, 2011
Polls on the Spanish debate
12 million people watched the debate, for a 54% share, down 5 points and 1 million from the last Zapatero/Rajoy debate (which was, however, the most watched debate in Spanish democratic history). Many polls, apparently, as reported here. But pay attention, that some of these "polls" seem to be online voluntary votes. The ones below are those I could establish actually used randomly selected samples. So who won?
1. El Pais/Metroscopia, N=501, Phone. Rajoy: 46%; Rubalcaba: 41%.
2. Antena 3 and Onda Cero/TNS, N=?, Phone. Rajoy: 43.9%; Rubalcaba: 33.1%.
3. El Mundo/Sigma Dos, N=?, Phone. Rajoy: 51.4%; Rubalcaba: 44.2%.
4. La Sexta/Invymark, N=1100, Phone. Rajoy: 48.6%; Rubalcaba: 39.9%.
Little doubts here, although one might argue that Rubalcaba did less badly than one would expect from current voting intentions. Don't forget, however, that these are self-selected samples too in a way, in this case, of those voters who watched the debate in whole or in part. And these "flash" polls take place very quickly after the debate, which makes fieldwork difficult and is certainly associated with low contact and response rates, with what that implies for sample quality. And that the effects of debates are thought to be relatively small. Etc.
BTW, Publico.es has a nice Twittometer.
1. El Pais/Metroscopia, N=501, Phone. Rajoy: 46%; Rubalcaba: 41%.
2. Antena 3 and Onda Cero/TNS, N=?, Phone. Rajoy: 43.9%; Rubalcaba: 33.1%.
3. El Mundo/Sigma Dos, N=?, Phone. Rajoy: 51.4%; Rubalcaba: 44.2%.
4. La Sexta/Invymark, N=1100, Phone. Rajoy: 48.6%; Rubalcaba: 39.9%.
Little doubts here, although one might argue that Rubalcaba did less badly than one would expect from current voting intentions. Don't forget, however, that these are self-selected samples too in a way, in this case, of those voters who watched the debate in whole or in part. And these "flash" polls take place very quickly after the debate, which makes fieldwork difficult and is certainly associated with low contact and response rates, with what that implies for sample quality. And that the effects of debates are thought to be relatively small. Etc.
BTW, Publico.es has a nice Twittometer.
sexta-feira, novembro 04, 2011
Spanish polls update
New polls:
1. By Sigma Dos, with fieldwork ending October 31st, showing almost no change in relation to previous poll finished 3 days before.
2. The new CIS study is out. The last one, from July, had PP at 43% and PSOE at 36%. Now, in congruence with what other polls have shown since then, that lead has expanded: 47% to PP and 30% to PSOE,
1. By Sigma Dos, with fieldwork ending October 31st, showing almost no change in relation to previous poll finished 3 days before.
2. The new CIS study is out. The last one, from July, had PP at 43% and PSOE at 36%. Now, in congruence with what other polls have shown since then, that lead has expanded: 47% to PP and 30% to PSOE,
quarta-feira, novembro 02, 2011
What poll results to publish?
SIC Notícias made this piece about the last Eurosondagem poll. Expresso published this piece summarizing the results concerning mass opinion about the budget measures. Maybe more about this poll has been published and I just missed it. What I did not miss, however, are the actual marginals published here. And there are results I haven't seen published anywhere (rounded):
P.20 Acha que o governo cortou o suficiente na despesa?
Sim: 38%
Não: 43%
NS/NR: 20%
P21. Tendo em conta o Orçamento de Estado, vai mudar hábitos de vida no próximo ano?
Sim: 69%
Não: 27%
Ns/NR: 4%
P.27 Se estivesse em idade ou tivesse possibilidades considerava emigrar?
Sim: 61%
Não: 32%
NS/NR:7%
I really don't like P.27, as it deals with too many hypotheticals. P21 was followed by a question for those who answered "Yes", and "Eating Out" was the most selected option for cuts in personal expenditures, and this is vaguely interesting too (although not "political" enough, I assume). But it is P20, and its deemphasis in the news coverage, that I find particularly interesting. Sometimes, journalists are puzzled by apparent contradictions in polls: "If a huge majority of people disagree with the cuts, as responses to other questions in the poll show, how can then a plurality believe the government has not made enough cuts?", I imagine them thinking. But the results are not necessarily contradictory:
1. People may disagree with the concrete cuts and prefer other ways of reducing expenditure. This is especially inviting in this poll because those "other cuts" that might make them "enough" remain unspecified.
2. "Expenditure" may generically sound bad, in the sense of wasteful. People may react to the question by thinking that it is a positive thing to cut "waste", that more should be done in cutting it, and that the government has not done enough of it. This does not mean they should support the concrete government plans at all.
3. Talking about "enough", without specifying "enough for what", further increases vagueness and allows for these apparent contradictions. Does "enough" mean that there will not be more? Does it mean that it will be "enough to satisfy our creditors"? Does it mean "enough to prevent Portugal from entering the Greek death spiral"? Etc.
In sum, it is a very good thing that ERC allows us access to the poll data unfiltered by whatever journalists think is newsworthy in those data.
P.S.- A few days later, these results were published.
More on the referendum
Apparently, the Daily Telegraph reports that a 3/5 majority is needed to pass a resolution permitting a referendum. If so, this would probably make it impossible. But although this may be totally clear to a constitutional lawyer, it is not clear to me at all. Article 44(2) of the Greek constitution provides for two sorts of referendums: on "crucial national issues" and on "serious social issues". In the former, government proposals must be passed by an absolute majority in Parliament. In the latter, 2/5 of parliament proposes and a 3/5 majority is needed. But although we could spend a lot of time thinking about the fascinating distinction between "crucial national issues" and "serious social issues", I don't think we need to. The main distinction seems to be between who proposes the referendum. If government, absolute majority. If parliament, qualified majority. Therefore, if we are talking about the former, as I think we are, the referendum is not as impossible as a 3/5 majority would suggest. Unlikely, but not impossible.
It should also be mentioned that when the possibility of such a referendum was first announced - last June, no less - the government also announced that it would introduce changes to several procedural aspects of referendums, which nonetheless must abide by article 44(2) of the Constitution.
It should also be mentioned that when the possibility of such a referendum was first announced - last June, no less - the government also announced that it would introduce changes to several procedural aspects of referendums, which nonetheless must abide by article 44(2) of the Constitution.
terça-feira, novembro 01, 2011
Referendum in Greece
Ah, politics: always so inconvenient. Faced with intraparty dissent and horrible polls, Papandreou announced he is going to call a referendum on the debt deal. In the meantime, another PASOK MP resigned, the party's majority in parliament is now down to two MP's, and six members of PASOK's national council called for Papandreou's resignation. And a recent poll shows 60% of Greeks to be against the deal.
According to the database at the Center for Research on Direct Demcracy, Greece has not held a referendum in 37 years. The last time was in 1974, after the collapse of the military Junta, to decide whether Greece would remain a Republic. Indeed it did, 69% to 31%. Turnout was 76%.
Apparently, judging from this Venice Commission document, this is the procedure:
1. Government proposes referendum.
2. A majority of MP's must support a resolution.
3. The President calls the referendum.
And Friday there's a confidence vote in parliament. So we're not quite there yet...
According to the database at the Center for Research on Direct Demcracy, Greece has not held a referendum in 37 years. The last time was in 1974, after the collapse of the military Junta, to decide whether Greece would remain a Republic. Indeed it did, 69% to 31%. Turnout was 76%.
Apparently, judging from this Venice Commission document, this is the procedure:
1. Government proposes referendum.
2. A majority of MP's must support a resolution.
3. The President calls the referendum.
And Friday there's a confidence vote in parliament. So we're not quite there yet...
segunda-feira, outubro 31, 2011
Spanish polls update
Several new polls in the last few days, as reported in Electometro. The overall picture since January 2011:
And a closer look at the smaller parties:
Looking at the more recent polls, especially by those pollsters who publish results more often, vote intentions for PP and PSOE seem very, very stable. The table below compares the results of the last to the next to last polls published by NC Report, Sigma Dos, and Metroscopia. Almost a little bit too stable, if we're talking about (as we think we are) independent samples.
And a closer look at the smaller parties:
Looking at the more recent polls, especially by those pollsters who publish results more often, vote intentions for PP and PSOE seem very, very stable. The table below compares the results of the last to the next to last polls published by NC Report, Sigma Dos, and Metroscopia. Almost a little bit too stable, if we're talking about (as we think we are) independent samples.
sábado, outubro 29, 2011
Marktest, 18-22 Oct, n=809, Tel.
Here. The government's PSD drops 5 points in voting intentions, but remains comfortably ahead of PS. The Prime Minister's approval falls 9 points. Having said that, the poll estimates 19% for blank votes and for other parties besides PSD, PS, CDS, CDU and BE, which is something so detached from any plausible scenario that one has to wonder what the whole results mean.
sexta-feira, outubro 28, 2011
Eurosondagem, 20-25 Oct, n=1032, Tel.
Unsurprisingly, following the 2012 budget plans, not very good news for the Portuguese government in the most recent poll. Government approval drops 7 points in relation to the previous poll by the same company, and there's now more people disapproving than approving. Drop in voting intentions for the PSD is less impressive: a 2.4 drop, bringing it to 36.9%, and a 3.4 drop in the lead over PS. Tomorrow, I believe, we'll know results on questions about the budget and its measures. What do you expect?
P.S- Here it goes: 81% oppose budget proposal, 80% against bonus cuts, 58% distrust the government, 63% support the strike and don't think the budget targets will be achieved. Disappointing that, as usual, most Portuguese pollsters offer no breakdown of results by party ID, or vote intention, or, in this case, whether respondents are civil service workers or pensioners.
P.S- Here it goes: 81% oppose budget proposal, 80% against bonus cuts, 58% distrust the government, 63% support the strike and don't think the budget targets will be achieved. Disappointing that, as usual, most Portuguese pollsters offer no breakdown of results by party ID, or vote intention, or, in this case, whether respondents are civil service workers or pensioners.
quinta-feira, outubro 27, 2011
Polls in Portugal
Surprisingly few, as Pedro Lains suggests. The last I know of is from October 6th. Until then, as suggested here and can be seen here, good news for the government. But of course, what happened since may matter a lot. I like it when people complain there's not enough polling: I think they're absolutely right, but probably most of you disagree. By the way, we should have a poll on that too.
domingo, outubro 23, 2011
More Spanish polls
Two recent polls in Spain, one by Metroscopia and another by Sigma Dos. The Metroscopia poll has PP's lead over PSOE standing firm at around 15 points, while the Sigma Dos poll places that lead at 17, also like in their previous poll.
segunda-feira, outubro 17, 2011
A look at the Spanish polls
There's a wonderful resource about the Spanish general elections that will take place about a month from now (November 20th, to be more precise): Electometro.com, a collection of web-based news on all voting intention media polls. Before looking at the data, a few aspects of these polls and how they are reported merit mention:
1. Fifteen different companies (including CIS, the state's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) have published polls results since January 2011, according to Electometro. Most of them, however, seem to do it on an irregular basis.
2. Maybe it's because Electometro gets its news from online sources (rather than print media), but it's surprising to see how lax the standards seem to be in terms of reporting basic methodological aspects of polls. Many results are presented without mention of sample size, mode, or even the estimated voting intention for parties other than the incumbent Socialists (PSOE) or Partido Popular (PP).
3. In most cases, percentages are presented with decimal points. Oh well...
4. Average sample size is surprisingly high with 2,175, but that's mainly due to a single poll published in April with a staggering sample size of 45,635! I don't enough about the vagaries of Spanish politics, media, and polling to understand what may have led a media company to sponsor something like this. Without this poll, average sample size drops to 1,323.
Spanish polls don't have a particularly stellar reputation in what concerns accuracy - if by accuracy we mean presenting voting intentions that end up being close to the final outcome. In 1996, polls suggested a PP lead over PSOE of about 10 points, while the actual margin of victory ended up being a single percentage point. In 2000, polls suggested a PP lead of 5 points over PSOE, but it ended up being 10 on election day. Things may be getting better, however. If we discount 2004, where the March 11 terrorist attack obviously disturbed the relation between intentions measured before the attack and the election outcome, most media polls in 2008 were close to the 44% score and 4 point lead that PSOE enjoyed over PP.
So what do things look like today? The following graph shows the results of the 64 polls published since January 2011 (as reported in Electometro), with voting intention for the five largest parties and a kernel smoothing line (25% points to fit):
The two vertical lines represent the dates when PM Zapatero announced he would not be PSOE's candidate (April 2nd) and when Minister of Interior Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba became the de facto Socialist candidate (June 13th). Mere visual inspection seems to suggest a positive (for PSOE) reaction to Zapatero's withdrawal from the race but no clear effects of Rubalcaba's selection. Izquierda Unida seems posed for a much better result than in 2008 (where it got 3.8%) and the same is true for Unión Progreso y Democracia.
Another way of looking at this is to focus on PP's lead over PSOE since the beginning of 2011, which seems to be on the rise since May and is, as of today, higher than 15 percentage points in almost all of the recent polls:
I also regressed each party's score on dummy variables for each polling company (taking CIS as the reference category) and for each month, excluding the constant from the equation and thus taking the estimates for each monthly dummy as monthly results cleaned of "house effects". In what concerns PP, the recent October results are close to the best the party has had since the beginning of 2011. For PSOE, the highest point was in April, after Zapatero's withdrawal, which seems to have given PSOE a 4-point bump. But voting intentions for the Socialists have declined ever since and there's indeed no evidence that Rubalcaba changed anything there. The results also show interesting house effects: in comparison in CIS, pollsters like Sigma Dos, NC Report, and DYM seem to generate results that are particularly flattering for PP, while the opposite occurs with Metroscopia and Obradoiro de Sociologia. As for PSOE, the most unflattering results have come from NC Report, GAD, TNS, and Metroscopia again.
Out today: a report by GAD interestingly entitled "¿Nos podemos fiar de las encuestas electorales?", recalling past problems with Spanish polls and a tendency to underestimate incumbent vote share.
1. Fifteen different companies (including CIS, the state's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) have published polls results since January 2011, according to Electometro. Most of them, however, seem to do it on an irregular basis.
2. Maybe it's because Electometro gets its news from online sources (rather than print media), but it's surprising to see how lax the standards seem to be in terms of reporting basic methodological aspects of polls. Many results are presented without mention of sample size, mode, or even the estimated voting intention for parties other than the incumbent Socialists (PSOE) or Partido Popular (PP).
3. In most cases, percentages are presented with decimal points. Oh well...
4. Average sample size is surprisingly high with 2,175, but that's mainly due to a single poll published in April with a staggering sample size of 45,635! I don't enough about the vagaries of Spanish politics, media, and polling to understand what may have led a media company to sponsor something like this. Without this poll, average sample size drops to 1,323.
Spanish polls don't have a particularly stellar reputation in what concerns accuracy - if by accuracy we mean presenting voting intentions that end up being close to the final outcome. In 1996, polls suggested a PP lead over PSOE of about 10 points, while the actual margin of victory ended up being a single percentage point. In 2000, polls suggested a PP lead of 5 points over PSOE, but it ended up being 10 on election day. Things may be getting better, however. If we discount 2004, where the March 11 terrorist attack obviously disturbed the relation between intentions measured before the attack and the election outcome, most media polls in 2008 were close to the 44% score and 4 point lead that PSOE enjoyed over PP.
So what do things look like today? The following graph shows the results of the 64 polls published since January 2011 (as reported in Electometro), with voting intention for the five largest parties and a kernel smoothing line (25% points to fit):
Another way of looking at this is to focus on PP's lead over PSOE since the beginning of 2011, which seems to be on the rise since May and is, as of today, higher than 15 percentage points in almost all of the recent polls:
I also regressed each party's score on dummy variables for each polling company (taking CIS as the reference category) and for each month, excluding the constant from the equation and thus taking the estimates for each monthly dummy as monthly results cleaned of "house effects". In what concerns PP, the recent October results are close to the best the party has had since the beginning of 2011. For PSOE, the highest point was in April, after Zapatero's withdrawal, which seems to have given PSOE a 4-point bump. But voting intentions for the Socialists have declined ever since and there's indeed no evidence that Rubalcaba changed anything there. The results also show interesting house effects: in comparison in CIS, pollsters like Sigma Dos, NC Report, and DYM seem to generate results that are particularly flattering for PP, while the opposite occurs with Metroscopia and Obradoiro de Sociologia. As for PSOE, the most unflattering results have come from NC Report, GAD, TNS, and Metroscopia again.
Out today: a report by GAD interestingly entitled "¿Nos podemos fiar de las encuestas electorales?", recalling past problems with Spanish polls and a tendency to underestimate incumbent vote share.
domingo, outubro 09, 2011
Rescaldo
Resultados finais:
PSD: 48,6%
CDS-PP: 17,6%
PS: 11,5%
PTP: 6,9%
CDU: 3,8%
PND: 3,3%
PAN: 2,1%
MPT: 1,9%
BE: 1,7%
Espero que já não me fique mal dizer isto, mas a Católica arrasa a concorrência de tal maneira que nem vale a pena fazer quadros comparativos.
PSD: 48,6%
CDS-PP: 17,6%
PS: 11,5%
PTP: 6,9%
CDU: 3,8%
PND: 3,3%
PAN: 2,1%
MPT: 1,9%
BE: 1,7%
Espero que já não me fique mal dizer isto, mas a Católica arrasa a concorrência de tal maneira que nem vale a pena fazer quadros comparativos.
quinta-feira, outubro 06, 2011
E mais Madeira
Últimas sondagens Madeira:
Eurosondagem, 2-4 Out., N=763, Tel.
PSD: 50,5%
PS: 17%
CDS: 10,5%
CDU: 5,5%
BE: 3,5%
MPT: 3,3%
PTP: 2,7%
PAN: 2,5%
PND: 2%
CESOP, 1-2 Out, N=1712, Presencial.
PSD: 48%
CDS: 16%
PS: 14%
CDU: 5%
PTP: 5%
PND: 4%
BE: 2%
PAN: 2%
MPT: 2%
Entretanto, segundo este artigo, alguns dos 45 mil "eleitores-fantasma" poderão votar, o que mostra que Madeira continua a ter coisas novas para mostrar ao mundo.
Eurosondagem, 2-4 Out., N=763, Tel.
PSD: 50,5%
PS: 17%
CDS: 10,5%
CDU: 5,5%
BE: 3,5%
MPT: 3,3%
PTP: 2,7%
PAN: 2,5%
PND: 2%
CESOP, 1-2 Out, N=1712, Presencial.
PSD: 48%
CDS: 16%
PS: 14%
CDU: 5%
PTP: 5%
PND: 4%
BE: 2%
PAN: 2%
MPT: 2%
Entretanto, segundo este artigo, alguns dos 45 mil "eleitores-fantasma" poderão votar, o que mostra que Madeira continua a ter coisas novas para mostrar ao mundo.
terça-feira, outubro 04, 2011
Mais Madeira
Intercampus, 30 Set- 3 Out, N=609, Tel.
PSD: 53,5%
PS: 16,9%
CDS-PP:11,8%
CDU: 3,9%
PND: 2,8%
BE: 2,5%
Outros: 8,5% (ou 8,8%, não se percebe bem)
Aqui.
PSD: 53,5%
PS: 16,9%
CDS-PP:11,8%
CDU: 3,9%
PND: 2,8%
BE: 2,5%
Outros: 8,5% (ou 8,8%, não se percebe bem)
Aqui.
Madeira
Que sondagens existem? Depositada na ERC e colocada nos seus arquivos públicos, que eu saiba, a mais recente é esta, de Julho (Julho!) passado:
PSD: 57%
PS: 16%
CDS-PP: 10%
CDU: 4%
BE: 3%
PAN, MPT, PTP e PND com 2% cada.
A anterior tinha sido esta, de Junho. Eu percebo: o assunto não está na ordem do dia.
Depois, claro, também há coisas como esta: Sondagem na posse do PSD que aponta para a renovação da maioria absoluta". Hum...
Parece que 5ª feira é que é. Mais uns dias e já não era preciso.
PSD: 57%
PS: 16%
CDS-PP: 10%
CDU: 4%
BE: 3%
PAN, MPT, PTP e PND com 2% cada.
A anterior tinha sido esta, de Junho. Eu percebo: o assunto não está na ordem do dia.
Depois, claro, também há coisas como esta: Sondagem na posse do PSD que aponta para a renovação da maioria absoluta". Hum...
Parece que 5ª feira é que é. Mais uns dias e já não era preciso.
quarta-feira, setembro 28, 2011
100 dias
O PSD teve 38,7% nas eleições. Olhando para os arquivos do blogue, o que diziam as sondagens feitas 100 dias após as eleições?
- 2005: descida do PS em relação aos 45% das eleições no caso da Eurosondagem (40,5%) e uma subida no caso da Marktest (46%).
- 2009: o PS andava com cerca de 38% quer na Marktest quer na Eurosondagem, ou seja, 2 pontos acima dos resultados das eleições, e com 33% na Aximage.
- 2011: PSD 1 ponto acima em relação às eleições na Eurosondagem, 2 na Aximage, 4 na Católica e 8 na Marktest.
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