sexta-feira, junho 15, 2012

Eurosondagem, 12 Jun, N=1022, Tel.

PSD: 34.3% (-0.5)
PS: 32.1% (+0.9)
CDS-PP: 11.6% (-0.9)
CDU: 9% (+0.2)
BE: 6.9% (+0.4)

Here, basically suggesting that the last known poll was not an outlier.

quarta-feira, junho 06, 2012


Interesting tidbits from the last Catholic University poll (Portugal, registered voters, N=1366, face to face, 49% response rate):

- 67% evaluate the government's performance as "bad" or "very bad."And yet, 58% believe that no opposition party could do better.
Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas, the leaders of the coalition parties, have the worst evaluations of all party leaders.
- Miguel Relvas is judged the worst member of cabinet, by far. Vítor Gaspar, the Finance Minister, the best (or least bad, so to speak.).
- Cavaco Silva, the President, has the worst evaluation ever, for himself and for any President before him.
- 72% support staying in the Eurozone. 20% support return to Escudo.
- 59% expect need for further EU/IMF support.
- 58% think it unlikely Portugal descends into a Greek scenario.

terça-feira, junho 05, 2012

Portuguese polls

A new poll out today. Below, an update of our usual graph (the lines are local regression smoothers, 75% bandwidth) already including it. One result of that poll that may surprise some people is that the Left (the Communists + the Left Bloc) adds up to 18% in voting intentions. But as you see below, it's not even the first time that happened.