quarta-feira, junho 25, 2008

Ainda a Irlanda

Poucas pessoas sabem tanto sobre o comportamento eleitoral na Irlanda (e não só) como Michael Marsh. Vale a pena ler este artigo no Sunday Post sobre o referendo: What did the voters mean when they said No to the Lisbon Treaty? Nem tudo o que lá é dito confere exactamente com o que defendi aqui, pelo que é ainda mais interessante, pelo menos para mim. Algumas passagens:

In this referendum campaign, although five out of six Irish parties, with a combined support of 85 per cent at the last national elections, supported the treaty, only 9 per cent of voters were contacted in person by the Yes side. The No side reached 8 per cent. A small group was contacted by both sides (3 per cent), but 86 per cent were not contacted at all. It seems difficult to maintain that the government or the other parties on the Yes side went all out to secure a victory. Moreover, it is indeed remarkable that the No side, lacking the established infrastructure of party organisations, reached about the same number of voters as the Yes side.

We asked whether Lisbon would have compromised Ireland’s neutrality; made the practice of abortion more likely in Ireland; led to a change in tax on businesses; reduced Ireland’s influence on EU decisions; strengthened the protection of workers’ rights; caused even more unemployment; lost us our European Commissioner for some of the time; and finally, simplified decision-making in the EU. The results indicate that the No arguments seemed to have won the campaign. Substantial majorities agree with their interpretation over the interpretation of the Yes side. Even on abortion, where their arguments were rejected by the Electoral Commission, a significant minority (39 per cent) was concerned that abortion could be brought closer had Ireland voted Yes.

Those most uncertain about their economic future, due to perceived decline in their own living standards in the last year, also tended to vote No. These factors are outside anyone’s immediate capacity to address, although dissatisfaction with the government - equally high at the time of Nice II - is not necessarily associated with a rejection of an EU treaty, at least to the degree it is associated here. Nor is it the case that voters were simply rejecting Europe. Over 40 per cent of No voters supported even more integration over protecting our independence from the EU.

E um gráfico espantoso, que mostra - aqui sim de acordo com o meu argumento - que o problema não foi a abstenção: aqueles que não votaram eram ainda mais hostis ao Tratado. Mais informação sobre a sondagem pós-eleitoral aqui.

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