segunda-feira, setembro 03, 2012

Polls in Portugal

All the voting intention polls since the 2005 elections. The vertical lines are the election dates (2005, 2009, and 2011), the lines in color are lowess smoothers (25% bandwitdth). Data taken from here and here (and from my own data until 2009).
On the coalition parties, the PSD is at its lowest level since mid-2010, and the CDS-PP has also been also dropping since the 2011 election. But note how the CDS-PP rose as the 2009 and 2011 elections approached. Predictably, the CDU (the Communist+Green coalition) is the most stable party. Consider, however, that almost all polls since the 2011 election have come from only three polling institutes: the Catholic University has published only two polls since that election and Intercampus hasn't publicly polled since June 2011.
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