sexta-feira, janeiro 04, 2008

Notas sobre Iowa

1. Obama e os novos eleitores:
"Obama's field operation -- led by Iowa state director Paul Tewes, adviser Steve Hildebrand and caucus director Mitch Stewart-- deserves a MASSIVE amount of credit for the work they did to recruit first-time caucus-goers. The Iowa Democratic Party was estimating turnout at 236,000 -- a huge increase from the 125,000 or so who turned out in 2004 (and an even larger leap over 2000's tiny 59,000 turnout). Tewes and Hildebrand were widely regarded as two of the best in the business, but even those who spoke glowingly of them didn't think they could grow the electorate over 200,000. Well, they did that and much, much more."
E ver isto.

2. A mobilização dos Democratas
"Republicans could well be in deep, deep trouble next November if turnout patterns in tonight's Iowa caucuses are born out across the country. More than 230,000 Democrats turned out, more than double the number of Iowa Republicans who did the same. The energy deficit has been clear for much of the past few years and led to Democrats' gains in the House and Senate in 2006. That chasm appears to be growing wider."

3. Iowa é importante, mas apenas na medida em que influencia New Hampshire:
"New Hampshire is the early state that has the biggest impact. Not Iowa. Iowa has a habit of picking losers. It is easy for media types to forget that because in its most recent outing, 2004, it single-handedly determined the winner. But historically, Iowa does not make much of a big ripple nationwide. The big question: will Iowa move New Hampshire? Obama needs it to. He is in second there right now. We don't have an answer yet - and history provides a mixed message. Sometimes Iowa does move New Hampshire. Sometimes it doesn't."
Ver também aqui.

4. Romney é o candidato dos Republicanos anti-Bush. Não parece que isso lhe seja particularmente favorável.
"Tonight was bad for Romney. Really bad. He lost by a lot. He lost by more than anybody expected. He lost after having led for a year. He lost after a monumental effort. This loss was bigger than Clinton's. He is not his party's frontrunner. He cannot afford to lose a state he tried so hard to win. Worse for Romney - McCain had already surged ahead of him in New Hampshire prior to tonight's loss."

"The press is not interpreting this as 'Clinton ties Obama among Democrats in entrance poll' or 'Mormon Romney finishes strong second in evangelical Iowa.' This matters. Watch how the press continues to interpret these results over the next few days. It is the source of information for persuadable voters in New Hampshire."
Resumo:
- Nos Democratas. Iowa acaba com Edwards. Agora é só entre Obama e Clinton. E se Obama ganha New Hampshire...Nas sondagens ainda está atrás de Clinton. Mas nos mercados electrónicos, que já estão a reagir a Iowa, já está à frente.
- Nos Republicanos, McCain, que parecia perdido, pode voltar à lista dos favoritos com New Hampshire. Romney sofre uma derrota muito grave e acaba se não ganhar New Hampshire, o que é cada vez mais provável. Thompson já acabou. Huckabee já não é uma curiosidade. Giuliani em suspenso.
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