segunda-feira, janeiro 07, 2008

Obama e os efeitos de Iowa para NH

Algumas ideias:

1. NH: View from Sunday Morning, no habitual Pollster. Merece ser lido integralmente, mas:

"Obama is certainly rising, the only question is by how much;"

"Firm conclusions are premature for two important reasons. The first involves the issue of weekend interviewing, or more specifically, surveys based on interviews completed entirely on Friday night and Saturday. (...) The second and more important reason to be cautious about this Sunday morning snapshot is that New Hampshire voters are still in the midst of a difficult decision;"

"I cannot point to an academic study to prove this, but most campaign pollsters will tell you that when a candidate is gaining, vote preference is usually the last thing to change. The movement usually shows up first on internal measures."


2. Polls Picking Up an Obama Surge?, no também habitual The Fix:

"In the days since Clinton's third-place finish in Iowa, her campaign has insisted that New Hampshire would pay little attention to what happened in the Hawkeye State. "Voters in New Hampshire are fiercely independent," argued Clinton deputy communications director Phil Singer in the spin room following last night's Democratic debate. 'They make their own decisions [based on] what they see, not what happens in other places.' Tonight's polls seem to contradict that argument."

"Unlike in years past, however, there is so little time between the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire that even a temporary bounce could be enough to carry Obama to victory in the primary, a win that would be another major step forward in his quest for the nomination."
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